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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Oct 22 2018 8:21 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221946
SPC AC 221944

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z


Isolated large hail will remain possible through the early evening
across eastern/northern Arizona, extreme southeastern Utah and far
western New Mexico.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal risk area across parts of
the Southwest. Greater coverage of thunderstorms is still expected
across northern AZ into the Four Corners region this afternoon,
which will remain in closer proximity to forcing associated with an
upper trough over southern NV/UT and northwestern AZ. Generally
isolated thunderstorms driven mainly by terrain-induced circulations
will be possible with southward extent in southeastern AZ and far
western NM. Around 35 kt of effective bulk shear noted in recent
mesoanalysis should support some updraft organization/rotation, and
isolated instances of large hail remain the primary risk.

..Gleason.. 10/22/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018/

...Eastern Arizona, southeast Utah and western New Mexico...

Corridor of greatest instability will evolve this afternoon across
southeast AZ along low-level moist axis where surface dewpoints are 
currently in the 50s F. Diabatic heating will support up to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE in southeast AZ with much weaker instability (MLCAPE
near 500 J/kg) farther north and east where low-level moisture is
more limited. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms persist
this morning from northern through southeast AZ. This activity will 
develop northeast in association with ascent attending a vorticity
maximum rotating through base of an upper trough. Unlike yesterday,
timing of the vorticity maximum is not ideal, and the deeper ascent
will gradually shift north of the zone of greater CAPE located
across southeast AZ. Nevertheless, at least weak instability will
evolve as the surface layer destabilizes within a more favorable
zone of ascent from northern AZ into southeast UT and northwest NM,
supporting potential for storm intensification where wind profiles
(30-35 kt effective bulk shear) will be supportive of marginal
supercell structures. Much weaker ascent or subsidence is expected
farther south across southern AZ which should contribute to a more
sparse coverage of storms capable of hail.


Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly: